The liquidation price — and the probability of reaching it
The liquidation price works without live data. The price feed only fills in your entry and powers the probability figures below.
Extra collateral on the position. It leaves the size unchanged and only pushes the liquidation price away.
All three push the same way, so treat this number as the optimistic end. Real liquidation arrives earlier — leave yourself room.
Liquidation is the moment remaining equity equals the maintenance margin. That margin is charged on the notional at the liquidation price, not at entry, which gives — for a long — liq = entry × (1 − 1/leverage) ÷ (1 − MMR). Calculators that drop that divisor and use plain "entry × (1 − 1/leverage)" put the level further away than it really is, and the error grows with leverage.
The probabilities come from the same model as this site's price prediction pages: each coin's own measured volatility (with its horizon structure) and fat-tailed Student-t shocks. That model's output is calibrated against history rather than asserted — a stated "50%" band actually contained 50.1% of outcomes, and a level said to be touched half the time was touched 50.0% of the time. Direction is not forecastable, but volatility is, which is exactly why a liquidation probability carries real information.
A leveraged position is closed by the exchange when losses eat into the margin far enough that what is left equals the maintenance margin. This calculator finds that price from your entry, leverage, margin and maintenance margin rate, for both long and short positions, and lets you add margin to push it further away. Everything is computed in your browser and nothing you type is stored or sent anywhere.
Most liquidation calculators stop at the price. But "your liquidation is at $80,000" does not tell you whether that is dangerous — a 20% drawdown is routine in a volatile coin and rare in a quiet one. So this page also gives the probability of touching that price within 7, 30 and 90 days, computed from each coin's own measured volatility. The same leverage carries very different risk depending on what you put it on, and that number shows it directly.
⚠️ Not investment advice. This figure excludes trading fees, funding payments, tiered maintenance margin and the exchange's insurance-fund mechanics, so it is an optimistic estimate— real liquidation comes sooner. Check your exchange's own liquidation price before placing an order. All trading decisions and risks are your own.
Liquidation happens when the equity left in the position equals the maintenance margin. Because that margin is charged on the notional at the liquidation price rather than at entry, a long works out to entry x (1 - 1/leverage) / (1 - maintenance margin rate), and a short to entry x (1 + 1/leverage) / (1 + rate). Calculators that omit the divisor place the level further from entry than it actually is, and the gap widens with leverage.
Because the price alone does not tell you whether a position is risky. A liquidation 20% away is routine in a volatile coin and rare in a quiet one. The probability is sampled from 4,000 paths using that specific coin’s measured volatility and fat tails, counting how often the price touches your level at any point within 7, 30 or 90 days.
It will be slightly closer to your entry. This calculation excludes trading fees, funding payments and tiered maintenance margin, and all three erode margin in the same direction. Treat this as the optimistic end and confirm against the liquidation price your exchange shows on the order screen.
It depends on the exchange, the coin and your position size, since exchanges apply tiers that rise with notional. On Binance the first tier is commonly 0.4% for BTC and 0.5% to 1% for most altcoins. The calculator cannot know your tier, so it takes the rate as an input rather than guessing.
No. Added margin leaves the quantity and notional untouched and only moves the liquidation price further away. Reducing leverage at a fixed margin is different: that shrinks the position itself.
Isolated. Only the margin assigned to this position backs it. Under cross margin your entire wallet balance and the profit or loss of every other open position feed into the same calculation, so the liquidation price moves as those positions move.